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CPC week-2: moderate heat risk + rapid-onset drought watch

Origin Lane: climateSouthern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley, United States

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook at 3:00 PM EDT on 1 September 2026, valid Wednesday 9 September through Tuesday 15 September 2026 (forecaster Danny Barandiaran). It shows a moderate risk of extreme heat for much of the Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday 9 September, and a slight risk of extreme heat across much of the Great Plains, Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast U.S. Wednesday–Saturday 9–12 September. Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk remains for portions of the Central and Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley amid greater-than-2-inch 30-day precipitation deficits and little rain in the next two weeks.

Estimated centroid for Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley heat and ROD risk area (CPC Week-2 outlook).
Product
U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook issued 300 PM EDT Sep 1, 2026; valid Wed Sep 9–Tue Sep 15, 2026
Moderate heat
much of Southern Plains and Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wed Sep 9
Slight heat
much of Great Plains, Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast U.S., Wed–Sat Sep 9–12
Day-8 ensembles
heat indices above 105°F widespread Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley; above 95°F as far north as central Illinois; Southeast often above 100°F
Rapid Onset Drought
risk remains Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley; >2-inch 30-day precip deficits; little rain next two weeks
Other
slight risk of heavy precipitation Desert Southwest/Great Basin Sep 9–11; forecaster Danny Barandiaran

Model ensembles favor a continuation of extreme heat already under way across much of the Great Plains and Southern Tier persisting into week-2 tied to anomalous mid-level high pressure near the Lower Mississippi Valley.

NWS CPC Week-2 Hazards Outlook synopsis, Sep 1, 2026

Official product: NWS/CPC U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook, 1 September 2026. Doom Signals does not invent heat-index thresholds or drought polygons beyond the outlook text.

  • Source: CPC threats/threats.php
  • Valid window: Sep 9–15, 2026
  • Place pin: Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley centroid for board map

Why it matters

Fresh Sep 1 3 PM ET CPC Week-2 hazards product — newer than the Aug 31 week-2 heat/drought note — with a named moderate heat day and continued ROD risk for the climate rail.

Sources

Official data. Not a forecast.

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