CPC week-2: 105°F heat and rapid-onset drought still stalking the Plains

Note

CPC’s synopsis: lingering central-CONUS ridging from the end of week-1 into week-2, with anomalous warmth and extreme heat centered across portions of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period. Some ROD areas were removed across parts of Texas and Louisiana because of anticipated week-1 rainfall. CPC cites Tropical Depression 5 in the Gulf as monitored by the National Hurricane Center as a reason some southern-periphery ROD was taken off southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana.

Hazards listed (CPC bullets)

• Moderate risk of extreme heat for parts of the Central and Southern Plains, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Sep 8-9.
• Slight risk of extreme heat for parts of the Desert Southwest, central and east-central CONUS, Tue-Mon, Sep 8-14.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across parts of the Great Basin, Central and Southern Rockies, southern California, and Southwest, Tue-Sat, Aug 8-12. (Quoted as printed on the CPC page; the product header valid window is Tuesday September 08, 2026 to Monday September 14, 2026.)
• Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk for portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley.

What CPC says the numbers mean

CPC says a moderate risk (40–60% chance) of extreme heat remains where GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools indicate at least a 40% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and where actual temperatures or heat index values exceed 105°F (110°F in the more humid areas of southern Texas). CPC also states this ROD area has registered 30- to 45-day precipitation deficits greater than 2 inches below normal and/or under half of normal, with less than an inch expected during the next two weeks. The National Blend of Models is cited for the potential for some Southern Plains locations reaching or exceeding record-breaking high temperatures. Those are CPC statements, not Doom Signals counts.

Tropics named in the same product

CPC states Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are located near 120°W and 145°W respectively, and that NHC analyzes Karina as a major hurricane tracking west-northwestward. In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Dolly “has opened up into a wave.” This note does not relocate those storms or invent landfall.