official data

El Niño Advisory: Niño-3.4 at +1.4°C — >90% chance of a very strong fall–winter

Aug 13, 2026Lane: climateNiño-3.4 monitoring region, equatorial Pacific

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on 13 August 2026. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. That is CPC’s language. This note does not treat “Super El Niño” as NOAA’s term.

Named ocean region (estimated): centroid of the Niño-3.4 box (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W) cited by CPC. Not a land event.

NOAA CPC Figure 1: July 2026 relative sea-surface temperature anomalies, OISSTv2.1, 1991–2020 base — NOAA CPC Figure 1: average relative SST anomalies (°C) for July 2026. Anomalies vs 1991–2020 monthly means. Data: OISSTv2.1. Official CPC figure cited by the 13 Aug 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion — not a Doom Signals map. NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Alert: El Niño Advisory
Issued: Aug 13, 2026
Niño-3.4 (July): +1.4°C
Niño-3 (July): +1.7°C
Niño-1+2 (July): +2.9°C
OND 2026 historic chance: 69%

El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27.
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 13 August 2026

Some media coverage uses the phrase “Super El Niño” for very strong events. That is not NOAA CPC’s wording in this discussion. This note sticks to CPC: strengthening, very strong, and historic (as a probability statement).

OND 2026 historic-event probability

During October–November–December (OND) 2026, CPC cites a 69% chance of a historic event exceeding previous El Niño events since 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value).

Impacts

CPC states that chances of El Niño–consistent impacts are larger but not guaranteed. For regional outlooks, use CPC products—not invented drought or flood maps on this site.

Schedule and scope

The next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for 10 September 2026. This advisory is official ENSO monitoring. It is separate from the ECDO hypothesis tracked elsewhere on Doom Signals; ECDO remains a hypothesis only, not a pole-flip clock, and is not proven by ENSO data.

Why it matters

CPC language is strengthening / very strong / historic (probability). Media sometimes say “Super El Niño” for very strong events; that phrase is not NOAA’s term here. Impacts consistent with El Niño are more likely but not guaranteed—use CPC outlooks, not invented maps. A very strong El Niño raises the odds of El Niño–consistent drought, flood, and storm-track shifts; CPC still does not guarantee those impacts.

Sources

NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Official data. Not a forecast. Endtimes badge not used on this note.

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