official data
20-year subpolar Atlantic overturning array finds no significant trend
Fox and colleagues, writing in Ocean Science (Copernicus) on 8 May 2026, extend a subpolar Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation record to 2004–2024 with the SCOTIA (Scotland–Canada) array: OSNAP-boundary moorings plus CTD, Argo, satellite altimetry, and ERA5. They report no statistically significant trend in subpolar AMOC over that period. Their linear trend is 0.42 Sv per decade, with a 95% confidence interval from −0.39 to +1.22. This is not a collapse-date paper and not a shutdown year.
Key facts
- Array
- SCOTIA / OSNAP western boundary, 2004–2024
- Subpolar trend
- 0.42 Sv/decade; 95% CI −0.39 to +1.22; not statistically significant
- RAPID ~26.5°N (cited)
- weakening 0.93 Sv/decade (95% CI −1.64 to −0.22) after ~20 years — not treated as subpolar collapse
- 2016–2020
- anomalously high subpolar overturning from increased southward Labrador Sea Water transport, not a shutdown
We find no statistically significant trend in subpolar AMOC during the period 2004–2024.
Fox et al., Ocean Sci., 22, 1439–1456, 2026, abstract
Note
Pin is an estimated named array location in the Labrador Sea at 53°N, 50°W (paper names the 53°N array and western interior near 50°W / mooring K10). Not a collapse site.
Why it matters
A 20-year subpolar array with no significant trend is the opposite of a collapse countdown. RAPID’s subtropical weakening is cited in the same paper and is not rewritten here as an AMOC shutdown. Do not invent a collapse year.
Sources
Official data. Not a forecast. Endtimes badge not used on this note.