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official data

GOES-19 electrons smash 1,000 pfu (max 1,264) — radiation-belt alert, not a pole flip

Origin Lane: ecdoNOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, Colorado

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued ALTEF3 serial number 3731 at 11:47 UTC on 31 August 2026 (7:47 AM EDT). The alert states: Electron 2 MeV integral flux exceeded 1,000 pfu. Threshold reached 31 August 2026, 11:46 UTC. Station: GOES-19. Comment: Yesterday’s max: 1,264 pfu. That is a radiation-belt electron alert from the official SWPC alerts feed. It is not a geomagnetic-reversal clock and not proof of ECDO.

Named place (estimated): NOAA SWPC in Boulder, the issuing observatory for a GOES-19 radiation-belt alert. Not a ground event and not a pole flip.
Product
ALTEF3 serial 3731
Issued
Aug 31, 2026, 7:47 AM EDT
Threshold
2 MeV electrons > 1,000 pfu at 11:46 UTC
Station
GOES-19
Yesterday’s max
1,264 pfu (SWPC comment)
Same-day K warning
WARK04 serial 5411, K-index of 4 expected, valid 08:58–15:00 UTC Aug 31

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1,000 pfu. Threshold Reached: 2026 Aug 31 1146 UTC. Station: GOES-19. Comment: Yesterday's max: 1264 pfu

NOAA SWPC ALTEF3 serial 3731, 31 August 2026, 1147 UTC

The same official SWPC alerts JSON also carried WARK04 serial 5411, issued 31 August 2026, 08:58 UTC (4:58 AM EDT): Warning, geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected, valid from 08:58 UTC to 15:00 UTC, warning condition Onset. Potential impacts in that warning: area primarily poleward of 65 degrees geomagnetic latitude; weak power-grid fluctuations can occur; aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

What this is not

  • Not a G-scale storm watch. The K-index-of-4 warning is below the NOAA G1 (K=5) minor-storm scale as explained on SWPC’s scales page.
  • Not an X-class flare summary. This note uses only the 31 August electron alert and the same-day K=4 warning from the official alerts list.
  • Not Earth-orientation data. Polar motion stays on the IERS note.

Why it matters

MeV electrons at GEO are a satellite-charging and radiation-belt issue. SWPC’s own K-index-of-4 warning for the same morning lists weak high-latitude grid fluctuations and aurora over Canada and Alaska — not a planetary catastrophe. Do not merge this alert with IERS polar motion or with ECDO. ECDO remains a tracked hypothesis, not proven science.

Sources

Official data. Not a forecast. Endtimes badge not used on this note.

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