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SWPC: S1 protons + M1.0 R1 from plage 4520 — G-scale still quiet

Origin Lane: ecdoSun / plage Region 4520 (heliographic S12; no Earth epicenter)

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Forecast Discussion issued 2026 Sep 06 0030 UTC states solar activity increased to moderate levels. Plage Region 4520 (S12, L=340) produced an M1.0/1f (R1-Minor) flare at 05/1518 UTC, with associated ≥10 MeV (S1-Minor) and ≥100 MeV proton events. ≥10 MeV proton flux exceeded the 10 pfu event level at 05/1645 UTC and reached a peak of 17.8 pfu, remaining elevated near threshold by the end of the reporting period. ≥100 MeV flux maxed at 1.16 pfu then decayed below 1 pfu by 05/1616 UTC. The 3-Day Forecast lists S1-or-greater probabilities 75% / 10% / 10% for Sep 06 / 07 / 08. SWPC alerts record ALTPX1 (S1) and extended WARPX1 valid until 2026 Sep 06 1200 UTC. Greatest expected Kp through Sep 08 is 3.67 — below G-scale; no G1 expected. Live GOES X-ray class and proton flux = see live HUD.

Flare
M1.0/1f (R1-Minor) · Region 4520 · 05/1518 UTC
S1 protons
≥10 MeV peak 17.8 pfu at 05/1645 UTC; ALTPX1 begin 05/1615 UTC
≥100 MeV
Max 1.16 pfu; back below 1 pfu by 05/1616 UTC
Warning
WARPX1 extended — 10 MeV >10 pfu expected through 06/1200 UTC
Geomagnetic
No G1 expected; greatest Kp 3.67 through Sep 08
Live class
See live HUD — do not freeze event peaks as current

Primary products: NOAA/SWPC Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast (Issued 2026 Sep 06 0030 UTC), plus SWPC alerts JSON (ALTPX1 / WARPX1 / SUMPC0).

This note freezes a dated official product window. Current GOES X-ray class and proton flux belong on the live HUD.

What it is not: ECDO proof, X-class flare, G1+ storm, satellite casualty count, or the Anak Krakatau influencer frame.

  • SWPC Discussion + 3-Day + alerts
  • S1 / M1.0 R1 · Region 4520
  • GEO: omitted — heliographic only
  • Not ECDO proof · not X-class · not G1

Why it matters

Step up from the Sep 4 board’s M1.2 / R1 (no S1) to an S1 radiation-storm day — particles at Earth while the G-scale stays quiet. That mismatch is the weight. M1 CME modeled ahead of Earth; early-08-Sep combined arrival is a modeled window only. Not ECDO proof.

Sources

Official data. Live X-ray / protons → HUD.

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